By Morgan Bazilian, Fabien Roques
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Additional resources for Analytical Methods for Energy Diversity and Security: Portfolio Optimization in the Energy Sector: A Tribute to the work of Dr. Shimon Awerbuch (Elsevier Global Energy Policy and Economics Series)
Journal of Hazardous Materials, 86, 55–75. Trigeorgis, L. (1996). Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. PART I Assessing Risks, Costs and Fuel Mix Diversity for Electric Utilities This page intentionally left blank CHAPTER 1 Diversity and Sustainable Energy Transitions Multicriteria Diversity Analysis of Electricity Portfolios Andy Stirling* Acknowledgements First and foremost, for reasons discussed in the chapter, I would like to acknowledge Shimon Awerbuch for the many stimulating conversations on issues addressed here.
Roques et al. (2006) compute the option value to a company of the ability to choose between a nuclear and a gas-fired plant investment at successive moments in the future, when the company faces stochastic gas, carbon and electricity prices. They show that this option value depends sensitively on the degree of correlation between electricity, gas and carbon prices, and conclude that there is little private company value in retaining the option to choose between nuclear and CCGT technologies in the future in liberalized European electricity markets, which exhibit a strong correlation between electricity, gas and carbon prices.
This will involve a brief survey of the remarkable variety of broad strategic reasons for an interest in energy diversity. Against this background, discussion will then turn to the deﬁnition of energy diversity itself, concentrating on three quite concrete properties and their treatment in various analytical approaches. It is on this basis that the chapter will then propose a new conceptual framework for addressing these attributes, in a way that remains ﬂexible to different interpretations and priorities, but which allows for more systematic and transparent analysis of alternative strategies for securing energy diversity.