Download Managing strategic surprise : lessons from risk management by Paul J Bracken; Ian Bremmer; David Gordon PDF

By Paul J Bracken; Ian Bremmer; David Gordon

Asks no matter if danger administration suggestions should be effectively utilized to modern nationwide safeguard challenges.

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Failed states, AIDs, corruption, genocide, and other maladies all seem to plague this continent. What can risk assessment and management possibly say about this enormous challenge? Herbst makes a simple yet key insight: that Africa is not uniform, more, that the differences between different countries on many scores is increasing. We think this is an excellent Introduction 15 example of our dictum that you don’t need data to think statistically. ” Focusing attention on “the average” gives a picture of overwhelming misery that masks the very significant differences on the continent.

Both essays make an essential point, one that we feel has been neglected in too many instances. It is that uncertainty needs to be understood not only in terms of things we don’t know about the 24 25 26 See N. N. Taleb, The black swan, the impact of the highly improbable (Random House, 2007), P. E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment, how good is it? How can we know? (Princeton University Press, 2005). We have often wondered what the fields are where there are silver bullets. We are indebted to Professor Garry Brewer of Yale University for putting the matter so succinctly.

The reason for the difference was management. Management is the key to performance of every other institution in our society, from business to health care, so it would be highly surprising if it was not important in warning and intelligence as well. Psychological approaches Psychological approaches to warning focus on how mental models shape judgment, at the individual and small group (social psychology) levels of analysis. Insights from this field have had major practical impacts on how warning systems are built, and on intelligence management generally.

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